Information kindly offered by Humphrey Feeds.

RAW MATERIAL

OCT

SEPT CHANGE

PRICES FOR SAME MONTH LAST YEAR

CURRENT PRICE FOR NOVEMBER

Wheat (ex farm)*

£182.00

+£16.00

£124.00

£183.00

Sunflower 36%

£283.00

+£53.00

£220.00

£275.00

Wheatfeed

£168.00

+£28.00

£136.00

£168.00

Fishmeal

£1,265.00

N/C

£1,290.00

£1,265.00

HiPro Soya

£361.00

+£47.00

£301.00

£359.00

 

The changes above are pretty shocking, and are as bad as I can recall in the last 10 years, for a series of single month of rises.

Sterling is weaker, having lost ground against $ and €.  Economic commentators and market makers have concerns about: the impact that COVID, and its counter measures are having on the economic recovery. 

The level of UK borrowing - already reaching £173.7 billion in the first 5 months of this financial year

The lack of Brexit certainty.

Wheat prices have lifted on limited supplies, and weaker currency.  Milling and feed wheat are being imported into the UK due to our high local prices.  Considerable volumes of maize and barley are being used in diets – all of which spares the limited supplies of UK wheat, which could mean that there will be a surplus by the end of the season.  From a technical perspective wheat prices now look over done, and correction is inevitable, but it is just a matter of ‘when’!

Plantings across the Northern hemisphere were progressing well, and it has been reported that in the UK there is already enough acreage planted to match this year’s harvest figures.  The AHDB have revised the UK’s wheat stocks upwards as the import programme continues to gain momentum.   

Recently the USDA released revised data, even going as far as amending previous reports, something which is rare, but when it happens, it does wrong foot the market.  This week it pushed all US agricultural markets higher, and both the Matif and Liffe markets followed.  

This market is difficult to read and is being lead more by political and economical factors, than crop fundamentals. 

Soya prices have lifted even more, in part due to a potential reduction in the US crop size, although stock levels are high, which would not normally lift prices so much.  

Strong Chinese demand and the biggest summer drawdown of 858 billion bushels of stock meant that funds bought heavily.  There is still concern around the continued dryness in South America which offers support at these levels.   

Sunflower prices have lifted even more over the last month, in part tracking the rise of soya, but also further heightened by the scarcity of supplies prior to the imminent arrival of new crop sunflower.

Wheatfeed prices have lifted more than wheat, but still offer good value relative to wheat.

Oil prices have firm along with Brent Crude prices. 

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